Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 28

RB Leipzig–1899 Hoffenheim

3–1

HT 2–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 5 April 2025 at 13:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Red Bull Arena, Leipzig

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

11'1899 HoffenheimT. Bischof (assist: B. Touré)
24'RB LeipzigB. Šeško (assist: D. Raum)
28'1899 HoffenheimLeo Østigård · red card
43'RB LeipzigR. Baku
84'RB LeipzigY. Poulsen (assist: T. Gomis)

Match statistics

Match statistics
RB Leipzig		1899 Hoffenheim
16	Shots	9
5	Shots on target	5
11	Shots inside the box	6
4	Goalkeeper saves	2
8	Corners	2
2	Offsides	4
67%	Possession	33%
604	Passes	299
535	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: RB Leipzig 2.05 · 1899 Hoffenheim 1.18. On the pitch: 3-1.
Shots RB Leipzig 16 · 1899 Hoffenheim 9; on target 5 and 5.
RB Leipzig kept the ball more (67%).

Referee

R. Hartmann→

3.60

yellows per match

0.17

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 58.2%: “RB Leipzig to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 22.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.11 for RB Leipzig, 1.20 for 1899 Hoffenheim.
The highest double chance value is 80.4% (1X — RB Leipzig win or draw).
These values were computed from 856 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

RB Leipzig to win58.2%

Draw22.2%

1899 Hoffenheim to win19.6%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,158 of 1,982 predictions were correct (58.4%). Accuracy record →

10	Fouls	12

0	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	1

First half

Actual: 2–1

RB Leipzig lead at half-time51.6%

Level at half-time34.8%

1899 Hoffenheim lead at half-time13.7%

First-half double chance

1X — RB Leipzig ahead or level86.3%

12 — not level at half-time65.2%

X2 — level or 1899 Hoffenheim ahead48.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 856 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

RB Leipzig: at least 10Actual: 10
1899 Hoffenheim: at least 10Actual: 12

Corners

RB Leipzig: at least 5Actual: 8
1899 Hoffenheim: at least 3Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals RB Leipzig score2.05

Attack: RB Leipzig score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: 1899 Hoffenheim's defence is close to the league average (1.15×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.05 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals 1899 Hoffenheim score1.18

Attack: 1899 Hoffenheim score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: RB Leipzig's defence is close to the league average (0.95×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.18 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–110.8%1–110.4%2–08.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.