Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 27

SC Freiburg–Union Berlin

1–2

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 30 March 2025 at 13:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Europa-Park Stadion, Freiburg im Breisgau

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 23%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

29'SC FreiburgL. Höler (assist: V. Grifo)
30'Union BerlinR. Khedira
48'Union BerlinA. Ilic (assist: T. Skarke)

Match statistics

Match statistics
SC Freiburg		Union Berlin
9	Shots	10
3	Shots on target	6
5	Shots inside the box	6
4	Goalkeeper saves	2
3	Corners	3
1	Offsides	1
72%	Possession	28%
608	Passes	239
513	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: SC Freiburg 1.62 · Union Berlin 1.10. On the pitch: 1-2.
Shots SC Freiburg 9 · Union Berlin 10; on target 3 and 6.
SC Freiburg kept the ball more (72%).

Referee

S. Storks→

4.04

yellows per match

0.20

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 49.4%: “SC Freiburg to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 27.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.55 for SC Freiburg, 1.01 for Union Berlin.
The highest double chance value is 76.8% (1X — SC Freiburg win or draw).
These values were computed from 853 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

SC Freiburg to win49.4%

Draw27.3%

Union Berlin to win23.2%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

8	Fouls	11

3	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–1

SC Freiburg lead at half-time38.9%

Level at half-time41.4%

Union Berlin lead at half-time19.6%

First-half double chance

1X — SC Freiburg ahead or level80.4%

12 — not level at half-time58.6%

X2 — level or Union Berlin ahead61.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 853 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

SC Freiburg: at least 8Actual: 8
Union Berlin: at least 11Actual: 11

Corners

SC Freiburg: at least 4Actual: 3
Union Berlin: at least 3Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals SC Freiburg score1.62

Attack: SC Freiburg score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Union Berlin's defence is close to the league average (0.97×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.62 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Union Berlin score1.10

Attack: Union Berlin score below the league average (23% fewer).

Opponent's defence: SC Freiburg's defence is close to the league average (0.91×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.10 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.9%1–011.2%2–110.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.