Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 27

1899 Hoffenheim–FC Augsburg

1–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 29 March 2025 at 14:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: PreZero Arena, Sinsheim

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 28%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

46'FC AugsburgS. Essende (assist: Cedric Zesiger)
71'1899 HoffenheimA. Kramarić (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
1899 Hoffenheim		FC Augsburg
13	Shots	11
4	Shots on target	4
8	Shots inside the box	5
3	Goalkeeper saves	3
2	Corners	2
2	Offsides	1
57%	Possession	43%
513	Passes	406
416	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: 1899 Hoffenheim 1.52 · FC Augsburg 1.31. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots 1899 Hoffenheim 13 · FC Augsburg 11; on target 4 and 4.
1899 Hoffenheim kept the ball more (57%).

Referee

T. Reichel→

3.94

yellows per match

0.12

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 40.8%: “1899 Hoffenheim to win”. Second comes “FC Augsburg to win” at 31.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.44 for 1899 Hoffenheim, 1.24 for FC Augsburg.
The highest double chance value is 72.2% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 847 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

1899 Hoffenheim to win40.8%

Draw27.8%

FC Augsburg to win31.4%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

14	Fouls	12

1	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

1899 Hoffenheim lead at half-time31.1%

Level at half-time39.5%

FC Augsburg lead at half-time29.3%

First-half double chance

1X — 1899 Hoffenheim ahead or level70.7%

12 — not level at half-time60.5%

X2 — level or FC Augsburg ahead68.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 847 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

1899 Hoffenheim: at least 10Actual: 14
FC Augsburg: at least 11Actual: 12

Corners

1899 Hoffenheim: at least 5Actual: 2
FC Augsburg: at least 4Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals 1899 Hoffenheim score1.52

Attack: 1899 Hoffenheim score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: FC Augsburg's defence is close to the league average (0.91×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.52 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals FC Augsburg score1.31

Attack: FC Augsburg score below the league average (25% fewer).

Opponent's defence: 1899 Hoffenheim concede 16% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.31 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.1%2–19.6%1–08.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.