Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 26

FSV Mainz 05–SC Freiburg

2–2

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 15 March 2025 at 14:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Mewa Arena, Mainz

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 26%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

34'FSV Mainz 05J. Burkardt (assist: A. Caci)
43'FSV Mainz 05D. Kohr · red card
58'SC FreiburgM. Gregoritsch (assist: C. Günter)
74'FSV Mainz 05Andreas Hanche-Olsen (assist: A. Caci)
79'SC FreiburgL. Kübler (assist: R. Doan)

Match statistics

Match statistics
FSV Mainz 05		SC Freiburg
9	Shots	24
4	Shots on target	8
6	Shots inside the box	20
6	Goalkeeper saves	2
1	Corners	4
0	Offsides	1
44%	Possession	56%
376	Passes	459
285	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: FSV Mainz 05 1.68 · SC Freiburg 1.14. On the pitch: 2-2.
Shots FSV Mainz 05 9 · SC Freiburg 24; on target 4 and 8.
SC Freiburg kept the ball more (56%).

Referee

B. Brand→

4.57

yellows per match

0.25

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 52.8%: “FSV Mainz 05 to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 26.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.63 for FSV Mainz 05, 0.96 for SC Freiburg.
The highest double chance value is 79.2% (1X — FSV Mainz 05 win or draw).
These values were computed from 838 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

FSV Mainz 05 to win52.8%

Draw26.4%

SC Freiburg to win20.8%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

7	Fouls	7

1	Yellow cards	2

1	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

FSV Mainz 05 lead at half-time36.4%

Level at half-time40.8%

SC Freiburg lead at half-time22.8%

First-half double chance

1X — FSV Mainz 05 ahead or level77.2%

12 — not level at half-time59.2%

X2 — level or SC Freiburg ahead63.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 838 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

FSV Mainz 05: at least 11Actual: 7
SC Freiburg: at least 9Actual: 7

Corners

FSV Mainz 05: at least 5Actual: 1
SC Freiburg: at least 3Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals FSV Mainz 05 score1.68

Attack: FSV Mainz 05 score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: SC Freiburg's defence is close to the league average (0.92×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.68 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals SC Freiburg score1.14

Attack: SC Freiburg score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: FSV Mainz 05's defence is close to the league average (0.86×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.14 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.4%1–011.5%2–110.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.