Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 25

Bayer Leverkusen–Werder Bremen

0–2

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 8 March 2025 at 14:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: BayArena, Leverkusen

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 10%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

7'Werder BremenRomano Schmid (assist: J. Stage)
90+4'Werder BremenJ. Njinmah (assist: K. Topp)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Bayer Leverkusen		Werder Bremen
18	Shots	11
4	Shots on target	7
11	Shots inside the box	9
5	Goalkeeper saves	4
10	Corners	3
2	Offsides	3
73%	Possession	27%
692	Passes	265
625	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Bayer Leverkusen 2.48 · Werder Bremen 0.82. On the pitch: 0-2.
Shots Bayer Leverkusen 18 · Werder Bremen 11; on target 4 and 7.
Bayer Leverkusen kept the ball more (73%).

Referee

T. Welz→

4.56

yellows per match

0.21

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 72.8%: “Bayer Leverkusen to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 17.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.37 for Bayer Leverkusen, 0.81 for Werder Bremen.
The highest double chance value is 90.4% (1X — Bayer Leverkusen win or draw).
These values were computed from 829 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Bayer Leverkusen to win72.8%

Draw17.5%

Werder Bremen to win9.6%

When the model has said 70–75% in the past, 560 of 732 predictions were correct (76.5%). Accuracy record →

12	Fouls	10

4	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

Bayer Leverkusen lead at half-time70.9%

Level at half-time25.0%

Werder Bremen lead at half-time4.2%

First-half double chance

1X — Bayer Leverkusen ahead or level95.8%

12 — not level at half-time75.0%

X2 — level or Werder Bremen ahead29.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 829 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Bayer Leverkusen: at least 9Actual: 12
Werder Bremen: at least 10Actual: 10

Corners

Bayer Leverkusen: at least 6Actual: 10
Werder Bremen: at least 2Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Bayer Leverkusen score2.48

Attack: Bayer Leverkusen score above the league average (35% more).

Opponent's defence: Werder Bremen's defence is close to the league average (1.08×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.48 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Werder Bremen score0.82

Attack: Werder Bremen score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Bayer Leverkusen concede 35% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.82 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–011.9%2–110.4%3–09.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.