Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 25

VfL Wolfsburg–FC St. Pauli

1–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 8 March 2025 at 14:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Volkswagen Arena, Wolfsburg

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 26%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

38'FC St. PauliS. Van der Heyden (assist: J. Irvine)
70'VfL WolfsburgM. Amoura (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
VfL Wolfsburg		FC St. Pauli
16	Shots	14
4	Shots on target	4
12	Shots inside the box	9
3	Goalkeeper saves	3
6	Corners	6
3	Offsides	2
58%	Possession	42%
484	Passes	349
405	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: VfL Wolfsburg 1.66 · FC St. Pauli 1.05. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots VfL Wolfsburg 16 · FC St. Pauli 14; on target 4 and 4.
VfL Wolfsburg kept the ball more (58%).

Referee

R. Hartmann→

3.65

yellows per match

0.17

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 53.3%: “VfL Wolfsburg to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 26.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.66 for VfL Wolfsburg, 0.97 for FC St. Pauli.
The highest double chance value is 79.5% (1X — VfL Wolfsburg win or draw).
These values were computed from 829 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

VfL Wolfsburg to win53.3%

Draw26.1%

FC St. Pauli to win20.5%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	13

1	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

VfL Wolfsburg lead at half-time37.2%

Level at half-time42.1%

FC St. Pauli lead at half-time20.7%

First-half double chance

1X — VfL Wolfsburg ahead or level79.3%

12 — not level at half-time57.9%

X2 — level or FC St. Pauli ahead62.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 829 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

VfL Wolfsburg: at least 10Actual: 11
FC St. Pauli: at least 10Actual: 13

Corners

VfL Wolfsburg: at least 5Actual: 6
FC St. Pauli: at least 3Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals VfL Wolfsburg score1.66

Attack: VfL Wolfsburg score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: FC St. Pauli's defence is close to the league average (0.88×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.66 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals FC St. Pauli score1.05

Attack: FC St. Pauli score below the league average (30% fewer).

Opponent's defence: VfL Wolfsburg's defence is close to the league average (0.95×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.05 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.3%1–011.3%2–110.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.