Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 24

Union Berlin–Holstein Kiel

0–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 2 March 2025 at 14:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadion An der Alten Försterei, Berlin

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 15%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

42'Holstein KielA. Gigovic

Match statistics

Match statistics
Union Berlin		Holstein Kiel
14	Shots	10
3	Shots on target	3
13	Shots inside the box	7
2	Goalkeeper saves	5
11	Corners	3
1	Offsides	1
51%	Possession	49%
290	Passes	318
192	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Union Berlin 1.72 · Holstein Kiel 1.30. On the pitch: 0-1.
Shots Union Berlin 14 · Holstein Kiel 10; on target 3 and 3.

Referee

T. Reichel→

3.92

yellows per match

0.13

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 61.7%: “Union Berlin to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 22.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.93 for Union Berlin, 0.90 for Holstein Kiel.
The highest double chance value is 84.6% (1X — Union Berlin win or draw).
These values were computed from 826 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Union Berlin to win61.7%

Draw22.9%

Holstein Kiel to win15.4%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 847 of 1,354 predictions were correct (62.6%). Accuracy record →

16	Fouls	12

4	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

Union Berlin lead at half-time40.9%

Level at half-time36.8%

Holstein Kiel lead at half-time22.2%

First-half double chance

1X — Union Berlin ahead or level77.8%

12 — not level at half-time63.2%

X2 — level or Holstein Kiel ahead59.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 826 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Union Berlin: at least 11Actual: 16
Holstein Kiel: at least 10Actual: 12

Corners

Union Berlin: at least 6Actual: 11
Holstein Kiel: at least 3Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Union Berlin score1.72

Attack: Union Berlin score below the league average (22% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Holstein Kiel concede 22% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.72 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Holstein Kiel score1.30

Attack: Holstein Kiel score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Union Berlin's defence is close to the league average (1.00×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.30 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.6%2–011.3%2–110.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.