Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 24

1. FC Heidenheim–Borussia Mönchengladbach

0–3

HT 0–2

Kick-off: Saturday, 1 March 2025 at 14:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Voith-Arena, Heidenheim

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — we gave this result 37%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

8'Borussia MönchengladbachR. Hack (assist: Julian Weigl)
18'Borussia MönchengladbachN. Ngoumou (assist: A. Plea)
59'Borussia MönchengladbachR. Hack (assist: L. Netz)

Match statistics

Match statistics
1. FC Heidenheim		Borussia Mönchengladbach
20	Shots	13
5	Shots on target	5
12	Shots inside the box	8
2	Goalkeeper saves	4
6	Corners	2
2	Offsides	1
44%	Possession	56%
389	Passes	502
326	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: 1. FC Heidenheim 1.62 · Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.56. On the pitch: 0-3.
Shots 1. FC Heidenheim 20 · Borussia Mönchengladbach 13; on target 5 and 5.
Borussia Mönchengladbach kept the ball more (56%).

Referee

S. Storks→

4.00

yellows per match

0.21

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 37.4%: “Borussia Mönchengladbach to win”. Second comes “1. FC Heidenheim to win” at 35.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.45 for 1. FC Heidenheim, 1.48 for Borussia Mönchengladbach.
The highest double chance value is 73.3% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 820 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

1. FC Heidenheim to win35.9%

Draw26.7%

Borussia Mönchengladbach to win37.4%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

9	Fouls	15

2	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–2

1. FC Heidenheim lead at half-time20.0%

Level at half-time38.3%

Borussia Mönchengladbach lead at half-time41.7%

First-half double chance

1X — 1. FC Heidenheim ahead or level58.3%

12 — not level at half-time61.7%

X2 — level or Borussia Mönchengladbach ahead80.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 820 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

1. FC Heidenheim: at least 10Actual: 9
Borussia Mönchengladbach: at least 10Actual: 15

Corners

1. FC Heidenheim: at least 5Actual: 6
Borussia Mönchengladbach: at least 4Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals 1. FC Heidenheim score1.62

Attack: 1. FC Heidenheim score below the league average (17% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Borussia Mönchengladbach's defence is close to the league average (1.10×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.62 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Borussia Mönchengladbach score1.56

Attack: Borussia Mönchengladbach score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: 1. FC Heidenheim's defence is close to the league average (1.14×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.56 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.1%1–29.2%2–19.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.