Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 23

RB Leipzig–1. FC Heidenheim

2–2

HT 1–2

Kick-off: Sunday, 23 February 2025 at 14:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Red Bull Arena, Leipzig

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 17%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

6'1. FC HeidenheimM. Honsak (assist: J. Schöppner)
13'1. FC HeidenheimM. Pieringer (penalty)
45+2'RB LeipzigLoïs Openda (assist: B. Šeško)
64'RB LeipzigB. Šeško (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
RB Leipzig		1. FC Heidenheim
17	Shots	4
6	Shots on target	2
10	Shots inside the box	1
0	Goalkeeper saves	4
7	Corners	4
2	Offsides	0
74%	Possession	26%
554	Passes	192
472	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: RB Leipzig 2.22 · 1. FC Heidenheim 1.03. On the pitch: 2-2.
Shots RB Leipzig 17 · 1. FC Heidenheim 4; on target 6 and 2.
RB Leipzig kept the ball more (74%).

Referee

M. Petersen→

4.55

yellows per match

0.26

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 74.2%: “RB Leipzig to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 16.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.48 for RB Leipzig, 0.83 for 1. FC Heidenheim.
The highest double chance value is 90.8% (1X — RB Leipzig win or draw).
These values were computed from 816 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

RB Leipzig to win74.2%

Draw16.6%

1. FC Heidenheim to win9.2%

When the model has said 70–75% in the past, 560 of 732 predictions were correct (76.5%). Accuracy record →

15	Fouls	15

3	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–2

RB Leipzig lead at half-time60.4%

Level at half-time30.9%

1. FC Heidenheim lead at half-time8.7%

First-half double chance

1X — RB Leipzig ahead or level91.3%

12 — not level at half-time69.1%

X2 — level or 1. FC Heidenheim ahead39.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 816 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

RB Leipzig: at least 10Actual: 15
1. FC Heidenheim: at least 10Actual: 15

Corners

RB Leipzig: at least 5Actual: 7
1. FC Heidenheim: at least 3Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals RB Leipzig score2.22

Attack: RB Leipzig score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: 1. FC Heidenheim's defence is close to the league average (1.15×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.22 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals 1. FC Heidenheim score1.03

Attack: 1. FC Heidenheim score below the league average (18% fewer).

Opponent's defence: RB Leipzig's defence is close to the league average (0.94×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.03 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–011.4%2–110.2%3–09.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.