Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 22

Eintracht Frankfurt–Holstein Kiel

3–1

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 16 February 2025 at 16:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Deutsche Bank Park, Frankfurt am Main

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

18'Eintracht FrankfurtH. Larsson (assist: N. Brown)
37'Eintracht FrankfurtTuta
60'Eintracht FrankfurtC. Uzun
73'Holstein KielF. Porath

Match statistics

Match statistics
Eintracht Frankfurt		Holstein Kiel
20	Shots	10
9	Shots on target	4
13	Shots inside the box	7
3	Goalkeeper saves	6
4	Corners	6
1	Offsides	2
51%	Possession	49%
515	Passes	492
439	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Eintracht Frankfurt 2.45 · Holstein Kiel 1.07. On the pitch: 3-1.
Shots Eintracht Frankfurt 20 · Holstein Kiel 10; on target 9 and 4.

Referee

R. Hartmann→

3.69

yellows per match

0.18

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 72.7%: “Eintracht Frankfurt to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 17.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.50 for Eintracht Frankfurt, 0.91 for Holstein Kiel.
The highest double chance value is 89.7% (1X — Eintracht Frankfurt win or draw).
These values were computed from 808 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Eintracht Frankfurt to win72.7%

Draw17.0%

Holstein Kiel to win10.3%

When the model has said 70–75% in the past, 560 of 732 predictions were correct (76.5%). Accuracy record →

16	Fouls	10

2	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 2–0

Eintracht Frankfurt lead at half-time64.9%

Level at half-time27.3%

Holstein Kiel lead at half-time7.8%

First-half double chance

1X — Eintracht Frankfurt ahead or level92.2%

12 — not level at half-time72.7%

X2 — level or Holstein Kiel ahead35.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 808 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Eintracht Frankfurt: at least 9Actual: 16
Holstein Kiel: at least 10Actual: 10

Corners

Eintracht Frankfurt: at least 6Actual: 4
Holstein Kiel: at least 2Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Eintracht Frankfurt score2.45

Attack: Eintracht Frankfurt score above the league average (19% more).

Opponent's defence: Holstein Kiel concede 22% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.45 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Holstein Kiel score1.07

Attack: Holstein Kiel score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Eintracht Frankfurt's defence is close to the league average (0.95×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.07 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–010.5%2–110.3%3–08.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.