Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 22

FC St. Pauli–SC Freiburg

0–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 15 February 2025 at 14:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Millerntor-Stadion, Hamburg

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 31%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

88'SC FreiburgP. Treu (own goal)

Match statistics

Match statistics
FC St. Pauli		SC Freiburg
5	Shots	5
1	Shots on target	3
3	Shots inside the box	2
3	Goalkeeper saves	1
2	Corners	6
0	Offsides	5
54%	Possession	46%
519	Passes	447
427	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: FC St. Pauli 1.46 · SC Freiburg 1.18. On the pitch: 0-1.
Shots FC St. Pauli 5 · SC Freiburg 5; on target 1 and 3.

Referee

B. Brand→

4.57

yellows per match

0.26

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 39.1%: “FC St. Pauli to win”. Second comes “SC Freiburg to win” at 31.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.27 for FC St. Pauli, 1.12 for SC Freiburg.
The highest double chance value is 70.3% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 802 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

FC St. Pauli to win39.1%

Draw29.7%

SC Freiburg to win31.2%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

10	Fouls	10

1	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

FC St. Pauli lead at half-time27.2%

Level at half-time42.2%

SC Freiburg lead at half-time30.6%

First-half double chance

1X — FC St. Pauli ahead or level69.4%

12 — not level at half-time57.8%

X2 — level or SC Freiburg ahead72.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 802 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

FC St. Pauli: at least 10Actual: 10
SC Freiburg: at least 9Actual: 10

Corners

FC St. Pauli: at least 4Actual: 2
SC Freiburg: at least 3Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals FC St. Pauli score1.46

Attack: FC St. Pauli score below the league average (24% fewer).

Opponent's defence: SC Freiburg's defence is close to the league average (0.95×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.46 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals SC Freiburg score1.18

Attack: SC Freiburg score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: FC St. Pauli's defence is close to the league average (0.85×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.18 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.0%1–010.8%0–19.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.