Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 21

Borussia Mönchengladbach–Eintracht Frankfurt

1–1

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 8 February 2025 at 17:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Borussia-Park, Monchengladbach

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — we gave this result 25%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

26'Borussia MönchengladbachT. Kleindienst (assist: F. Neuhaus)
31'Eintracht FrankfurtH. Ekitike

Match statistics

Match statistics
Borussia Mönchengladbach		Eintracht Frankfurt
8	Shots	15
3	Shots on target	7
5	Shots inside the box	9
6	Goalkeeper saves	2
6	Corners	1
1	Offsides	3
53%	Possession	47%
522	Passes	467
438	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.73 · Eintracht Frankfurt 1.70. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Borussia Mönchengladbach 8 · Eintracht Frankfurt 15; on target 3 and 7.

Referee

C. Dingert→

4.55

yellows per match

0.13

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 37.8%: “Borussia Mönchengladbach to win”. Second comes “Eintracht Frankfurt to win” at 37.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.64 for Borussia Mönchengladbach, 1.63 for Eintracht Frankfurt.
The highest double chance value is 74.9% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 798 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Borussia Mönchengladbach to win37.8%

Draw25.1%

Eintracht Frankfurt to win37.1%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

10	Fouls	9

3	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–1

Borussia Mönchengladbach lead at half-time30.3%

Level at half-time39.4%

Eintracht Frankfurt lead at half-time30.3%

First-half double chance

1X — Borussia Mönchengladbach ahead or level69.7%

12 — not level at half-time60.6%

X2 — level or Eintracht Frankfurt ahead69.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 798 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Borussia Mönchengladbach: at least 9Actual: 10
Eintracht Frankfurt: at least 10Actual: 9

Corners

Borussia Mönchengladbach: at least 5Actual: 6
Eintracht Frankfurt: at least 4Actual: 1

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Borussia Mönchengladbach score1.73

Attack: Borussia Mönchengladbach score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Eintracht Frankfurt's defence is close to the league average (0.97×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.73 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Eintracht Frankfurt score1.70

Attack: Eintracht Frankfurt score above the league average (18% more).

Opponent's defence: Borussia Mönchengladbach's defence is close to the league average (1.08×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.70 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.5%2–19.1%1–29.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.