Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 20

FC St. Pauli–FC Augsburg

1–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 1 February 2025 at 14:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Millerntor-Stadion, Hamburg

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 29%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

17'FC St. PauliNoahkai Kai Daniel Banks (own goal)
83'FC AugsburgM. Kömür (assist: D. Giannoulis)

Match statistics

Match statistics
FC St. Pauli		FC Augsburg
6	Shots	2
1	Shots on target	1
4	Shots inside the box	2
0	Goalkeeper saves	1
3	Corners	1
3	Offsides	1
45%	Possession	55%
419	Passes	524
324	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: FC St. Pauli 1.64 · FC Augsburg 1.10. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots FC St. Pauli 6 · FC Augsburg 2; on target 1 and 1.
FC Augsburg kept the ball more (55%).

Referee

T. Reichel→

3.98

yellows per match

0.13

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 45.6%: “FC St. Pauli to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 28.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.42 for FC St. Pauli, 1.02 for FC Augsburg.
The highest double chance value is 74.2% (1X — FC St. Pauli win or draw).
These values were computed from 784 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

FC St. Pauli to win45.6%

Draw28.7%

FC Augsburg to win25.8%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

16	Fouls	18

1	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

FC St. Pauli lead at half-time32.6%

Level at half-time40.3%

FC Augsburg lead at half-time27.2%

First-half double chance

1X — FC St. Pauli ahead or level72.8%

12 — not level at half-time59.7%

X2 — level or FC Augsburg ahead67.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 784 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

FC St. Pauli: at least 10Actual: 16
FC Augsburg: at least 10Actual: 18

Corners

FC St. Pauli: at least 4Actual: 3
FC Augsburg: at least 4Actual: 1

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals FC St. Pauli score1.64

Attack: FC St. Pauli score below the league average (21% fewer).

Opponent's defence: FC Augsburg's defence is close to the league average (1.02×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.64 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals FC Augsburg score1.10

Attack: FC Augsburg score below the league average (21% fewer).

Opponent's defence: FC St. Pauli's defence is close to the league average (0.85×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.10 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.6%1–011.6%2–19.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.