Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 20

VfL Bochum–SC Freiburg

0–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 1 February 2025 at 14:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Vonovia Ruhrstadion, Bochum

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — we gave this result 37%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

34'SC FreiburgK. Sildillia (assist: C. Günter)

Match statistics

Match statistics
VfL Bochum		SC Freiburg
22	Shots	13
4	Shots on target	5
10	Shots inside the box	10
3	Goalkeeper saves	4
9	Corners	7
1	Offsides	1
58%	Possession	42%
436	Passes	317
345	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: VfL Bochum 1.51 · SC Freiburg 1.62. On the pitch: 0-1.
Shots VfL Bochum 22 · SC Freiburg 13; on target 4 and 5.
VfL Bochum kept the ball more (58%).

Referee

T. Welz→

4.56

yellows per match

0.22

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 37.3%: “SC Freiburg to win”. Second comes “VfL Bochum to win” at 34.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.31 for VfL Bochum, 1.36 for SC Freiburg.
The highest double chance value is 71.9% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 784 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

VfL Bochum to win34.7%

Draw28.1%

SC Freiburg to win37.3%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

15	Fouls	10

3	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

VfL Bochum lead at half-time25.6%

Level at half-time39.4%

SC Freiburg lead at half-time34.9%

First-half double chance

1X — VfL Bochum ahead or level65.1%

12 — not level at half-time60.6%

X2 — level or SC Freiburg ahead74.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 784 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

VfL Bochum: at least 11Actual: 15
SC Freiburg: at least 9Actual: 10

Corners

VfL Bochum: at least 4Actual: 9
SC Freiburg: at least 3Actual: 7

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals VfL Bochum score1.51

Attack: VfL Bochum score below the league average (18% fewer).

Opponent's defence: SC Freiburg's defence is close to the league average (0.97×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.51 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals SC Freiburg score1.62

Attack: SC Freiburg score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: VfL Bochum concede 27% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.62 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.2%1–29.2%2–18.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.