Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 17

VfL Wolfsburg–Borussia Mönchengladbach

5–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Tuesday, 14 January 2025 at 19:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Volkswagen Arena, Wolfsburg

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

3'VfL WolfsburgJ. Wind (penalty)
60'VfL WolfsburgJ. Mæhle (assist: J. Wind)
75'VfL WolfsburgM. Arnold
84'VfL WolfsburgL. Nmecha (assist: P. Wimmer)
87'VfL WolfsburgL. Nmecha (assist: J. Mæhle)
89'Borussia MönchengladbachS. Fukuda (assist: A. Plea)

Match statistics

Match statistics
VfL Wolfsburg		Borussia Mönchengladbach
16	Shots	9
5	Shots on target	5
11	Shots inside the box	2
4	Goalkeeper saves	0
4	Corners	7
1	Offsides	0
35%	Possession	65%
338	Passes	646
265	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: VfL Wolfsburg 1.84 · Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.44. On the pitch: 5-1.
Shots VfL Wolfsburg 16 · Borussia Mönchengladbach 9; on target 5 and 5.
Borussia Mönchengladbach kept the ball more (65%).

Referee

F. Badstübner→

4.16

yellows per match

0.24

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 51.1%: “VfL Wolfsburg to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 24.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.81 for VfL Wolfsburg, 1.21 for Borussia Mönchengladbach.
The highest double chance value is 76.0% (1X — VfL Wolfsburg win or draw).
These values were computed from 757 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

VfL Wolfsburg to win51.1%

Draw24.8%

Borussia Mönchengladbach to win24.0%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

10	Fouls	7

1	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

VfL Wolfsburg lead at half-time34.2%

Level at half-time37.8%

Borussia Mönchengladbach lead at half-time28.0%

First-half double chance

1X — VfL Wolfsburg ahead or level72.0%

12 — not level at half-time62.2%

X2 — level or Borussia Mönchengladbach ahead65.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 757 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

VfL Wolfsburg: at least 10Actual: 10
Borussia Mönchengladbach: at least 11Actual: 7

Corners

VfL Wolfsburg: at least 5Actual: 4
Borussia Mönchengladbach: at least 3Actual: 7

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals VfL Wolfsburg score1.84

Attack: VfL Wolfsburg score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Borussia Mönchengladbach's defence is close to the league average (1.06×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.84 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Borussia Mönchengladbach score1.44

Attack: Borussia Mönchengladbach score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: VfL Wolfsburg's defence is close to the league average (1.01×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.44 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.1%2–110.7%2–08.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.