Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 34

1899 Hoffenheim–Bayern München

4–2

HT 1–2

Kick-off: Saturday, 18 May 2024 at 13:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: PreZero Arena, Sinsheim

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 27%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

4'Bayern MünchenM. Tel (assist: T. Müller)
6'Bayern MünchenA. Davies (assist: M. Tel)
8'1899 HoffenheimM. Beier (assist: A. Kramarić)
68'1899 HoffenheimA. Kramarić (assist: I. Bebou)
85'1899 HoffenheimA. Kramarić (assist: T. Bischof)
87'1899 HoffenheimA. Kramarić

Match statistics

Match statistics
1899 Hoffenheim		Bayern München
17	Shots	11
9	Shots on target	4
13	Shots inside the box	10
2	Goalkeeper saves	5
6	Corners	5
1	Offsides	3
48%	Possession	52%
457	Passes	510
397	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: 1899 Hoffenheim 1.24 · Bayern München 2.38. On the pitch: 4-2.
Shots 1899 Hoffenheim 17 · Bayern München 11; on target 9 and 4.

Referee

M. Fritz→

4.31

yellows per match

0.14

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 50.6%: “Bayern München to win”. Second comes “1899 Hoffenheim to win” at 27.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.62 for 1899 Hoffenheim, 2.19 for Bayern München.
The highest double chance value is 77.9% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 603 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

1899 Hoffenheim to win27.3%

Draw22.1%

Bayern München to win50.6%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

7	Fouls	9

3	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–2

1899 Hoffenheim lead at half-time20.8%

Level at half-time34.9%

Bayern München lead at half-time44.3%

First-half double chance

1X — 1899 Hoffenheim ahead or level55.7%

12 — not level at half-time65.1%

X2 — level or Bayern München ahead79.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 603 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

1899 Hoffenheim: at least 9Actual: 7
Bayern München: at least 9Actual: 9

Corners

1899 Hoffenheim: at least 3Actual: 6
Bayern München: at least 5Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals 1899 Hoffenheim score1.24

Attack: 1899 Hoffenheim score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Bayern München concede 26% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.24 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Bayern München score2.38

Attack: Bayern München score 58% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: 1899 Hoffenheim concede 16% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: A strong attack meets a weak defence. The effects compound and the expectation rises to 2.38 goals.

Most likely scorelines

1–29.4%1–18.6%2–27.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.