Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 32

Union Berlin–VfL Bochum

3–4

HT 0–3

Kick-off: Sunday, 5 May 2024 at 13:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadion An der Alten Försterei, Berlin

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 24%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

16'VfL BochumM. Wittek (assist: M. Broschinski)
31'VfL BochumM. Wittek (assist: P. Osterhage)
37'VfL BochumK. Schlotterbeck (assist: F. Passlack)
59'Union BerlinY. Vertessen (assist: R. Gosens)
62'Union BerlinC. Bedia (assist: A. Schäfer)
70'VfL Bochum

Match statistics

Match statistics
Union Berlin		VfL Bochum
12	Shots	18
5	Shots on target	5
10	Shots inside the box	12
1	Goalkeeper saves	2
6	Corners	4
1	Offsides	0
48%	Possession	52%
360	Passes	386
235	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Union Berlin 1.67 · VfL Bochum 1.14. On the pitch: 3-4.
Shots Union Berlin 12 · VfL Bochum 18; on target 5 and 5.

Referee

M. Fritz→

4.42

yellows per match

0.15

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 48.9%: “Union Berlin to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 26.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.59 for Union Berlin, 1.08 for VfL Bochum.
The highest double chance value is 75.7% (1X — Union Berlin win or draw).
These values were computed from 591 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Union Berlin to win48.9%

Draw26.8%

VfL Bochum to win24.3%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

13	Fouls	16

0	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–3

Union Berlin lead at half-time32.2%

Level at half-time42.6%

VfL Bochum lead at half-time25.2%

First-half double chance

1X — Union Berlin ahead or level74.8%

12 — not level at half-time57.4%

X2 — level or VfL Bochum ahead67.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 591 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Union Berlin: at least 11Actual: 13
VfL Bochum: at least 11Actual: 16

Corners

Union Berlin: at least 5Actual: 6
VfL Bochum: at least 3Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Union Berlin score1.67

Attack: Union Berlin score below the league average (26% fewer).

Opponent's defence: VfL Bochum concede 19% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.67 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals VfL Bochum score1.14

Attack: VfL Bochum score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Union Berlin's defence is close to the league average (0.90×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.14 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.6%2–110.4%1–010.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.