Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 27

Eintracht Frankfurt–Union Berlin

0–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 30 March 2024 at 14:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Frankfurt Arena, Frankfurt am Main

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 28%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Match statistics

Match statistics
Eintracht Frankfurt		Union Berlin
16	Shots	11
4	Shots on target	2
10	Shots inside the box	8
2	Goalkeeper saves	3
6	Corners	2
2	Offsides	3
65%	Possession	35%
603	Passes	335
502	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Eintracht Frankfurt 1.69 · Union Berlin 1.10. On the pitch: 0-0.
Shots Eintracht Frankfurt 16 · Union Berlin 11; on target 4 and 2.
Eintracht Frankfurt kept the ball more (65%).

Referee

M. Fritz→

4.23

yellows per match

0.17

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 49.6%: “Eintracht Frankfurt to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 27.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.52 for Eintracht Frankfurt, 0.97 for Union Berlin.
The highest double chance value is 77.3% (1X — Eintracht Frankfurt win or draw).
These values were computed from 540 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Eintracht Frankfurt to win49.6%

Draw27.7%

Union Berlin to win22.7%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

8	Fouls	14

3	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Eintracht Frankfurt lead at half-time40.6%

Level at half-time38.9%

Union Berlin lead at half-time20.5%

First-half double chance

1X — Eintracht Frankfurt ahead or level79.5%

12 — not level at half-time61.1%

X2 — level or Union Berlin ahead59.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 540 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Eintracht Frankfurt: at least 10Actual: 8
Union Berlin: at least 10Actual: 14

Corners

Eintracht Frankfurt: at least 5Actual: 6
Union Berlin: at least 3Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Eintracht Frankfurt score1.69

Attack: Eintracht Frankfurt score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Union Berlin's defence is close to the league average (0.90×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.69 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Union Berlin score1.10

Attack: Union Berlin score below the league average (25% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Eintracht Frankfurt's defence is close to the league average (0.96×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.10 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.1%1–011.9%2–110.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.