Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 25

VfL Bochum–SC Freiburg

1–2

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 10 March 2024 at 14:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Vonovia Ruhrstadion, Bochum

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 33%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

36'SC FreiburgM. Eggestein (assist: M. Gregoritsch)
53'SC FreiburgM. Gregoritsch (assist: R. Doan)
62'VfL BochumIvan Ordets (assist: K. Stöger)

Match statistics

Match statistics
VfL Bochum		SC Freiburg
24	Shots	9
7	Shots on target	5
15	Shots inside the box	7
2	Goalkeeper saves	6
12	Corners	5
2	Offsides	3
59%	Possession	41%
450	Passes	315
333	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: VfL Bochum 1.60 · SC Freiburg 1.56. On the pitch: 1-2.
Shots VfL Bochum 24 · SC Freiburg 9; on target 7 and 5.
VfL Bochum kept the ball more (59%).

Referee

M. Fritz→

4.03

yellows per match

0.17

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 38.4%: “VfL Bochum to win”. Second comes “SC Freiburg to win” at 33.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.36 for VfL Bochum, 1.25 for SC Freiburg.
The highest double chance value is 71.6% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 528 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

VfL Bochum to win38.4%

Draw28.4%

SC Freiburg to win33.2%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	11

3	Yellow cards	7

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

VfL Bochum lead at half-time30.7%

Level at half-time38.5%

SC Freiburg lead at half-time30.8%

First-half double chance

1X — VfL Bochum ahead or level69.2%

12 — not level at half-time61.5%

X2 — level or SC Freiburg ahead69.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 528 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

VfL Bochum: at least 12Actual: 11
SC Freiburg: at least 10Actual: 11

Corners

VfL Bochum: at least 4Actual: 12
SC Freiburg: at least 3Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals VfL Bochum score1.60

Attack: VfL Bochum score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: SC Freiburg's defence is close to the league average (1.00×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.60 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals SC Freiburg score1.56

Attack: SC Freiburg score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: VfL Bochum concede 22% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.56 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.4%2–19.3%1–09.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.