Serie A · Italy · Regular Season - 38

Empoli–Hellas Verona

1–2

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 25 May 2025 at 18:45
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena, Empoli

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 19%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

4'Hellas VeronaS. Serdar (assist: O. Duda)
43'EmpoliJacopo Fazzini
69'Hellas VeronaD. Bradaric (assist: J. Tchatchoua)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Empoli		Hellas Verona
15	Shots	5
5	Shots on target	2
4	Shots inside the box	3
0	Goalkeeper saves	4
13	Corners	1
1	Offsides	1
70%	Possession	30%
433	Passes	202
340	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Empoli 1.21 · Hellas Verona 1.04. On the pitch: 1-2.
Shots Empoli 15 · Hellas Verona 5; on target 5 and 2.
Empoli kept the ball more (70%).

Referee

D. Doveri→

3.36

yellows per match

0.20

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 49.4%: “Empoli to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 31.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.26 for Empoli, 0.70 for Hellas Verona.
The highest double chance value is 80.5% (1X — Empoli win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,134 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Empoli to win49.4%

Draw31.2%

Hellas Verona to win19.5%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

10	Fouls	29

2	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–1

Empoli lead at half-time37.9%

Level at half-time45.0%

Hellas Verona lead at half-time17.1%

First-half double chance

1X — Empoli ahead or level82.9%

12 — not level at half-time55.0%

X2 — level or Hellas Verona ahead62.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1134 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Empoli: at least 11Actual: 10
Hellas Verona: at least 13Actual: 29

Corners

Empoli: at least 4Actual: 13
Hellas Verona: at least 3Actual: 1

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Empoli score1.21

Attack: Empoli score below the league average (25% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Hellas Verona's defence is close to the league average (1.11×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.21 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Hellas Verona score1.04

Attack: Hellas Verona score below the league average (26% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Empoli's defence is close to the league average (1.11×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.04 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–017.4%1–114.3%0–013.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.