Serie A · Italy · Regular Season - 38

Torino–AS Roma

0–2

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 25 May 2025 at 18:45
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino, Torino

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

18'AS RomaL. Paredes (penalty)
53'AS RomaAlexis Saelemaekers (assist: Matías Soulé)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Torino		AS Roma
11	Shots	15
4	Shots on target	5
5	Shots inside the box	11
3	Goalkeeper saves	4
2	Corners	1
3	Offsides	1
46%	Possession	54%
418	Passes	501
372	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Torino 0.97 · AS Roma 1.35. On the pitch: 0-2.
Shots Torino 11 · AS Roma 15; on target 4 and 5.

Referee

M. Di Bello→

4.37

yellows per match

0.17

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 61.0%: “AS Roma to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 22.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.96 for Torino, 1.97 for AS Roma.
The highest double chance value is 83.7% (X2 — draw or AS Roma win).
These values were computed from 1,134 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Torino to win16.3%

Draw22.7%

AS Roma to win61.0%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 847 of 1,354 predictions were correct (62.6%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

15	Fouls	11

1	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

Torino lead at half-time21.1%

Level at half-time48.0%

AS Roma lead at half-time30.9%

First-half double chance

1X — Torino ahead or level69.1%

12 — not level at half-time52.0%

X2 — level or AS Roma ahead78.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1134 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Torino: at least 12Actual: 15
AS Roma: at least 10Actual: 11

Corners

Torino: at least 4Actual: 2
AS Roma: at least 3Actual: 1

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Torino score0.97

Attack: Torino score below the league average (20% fewer).

Opponent's defence: AS Roma concede 16% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.97 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals AS Roma score1.35

Attack: AS Roma score above the league average (15% more).

Opponent's defence: Torino's defence is close to the league average (0.96×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.35 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.4%1–211.0%0–210.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.