Serie A · Italy · Regular Season - 38

AC Milan–Monza

2–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 24 May 2025 at 18:45
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadio Giuseppe Meazza, Milan

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

64'AC MilanMatteo Gabbia (assist: Samuel Chukwueze)
74'AC MilanJoão Félix

Match statistics

Match statistics
AC Milan		Monza
21	Shots	6
6	Shots on target	2
10	Shots inside the box	3
2	Goalkeeper saves	4
4	Corners	6
0	Offsides	6
55%	Possession	45%
569	Passes	456
531	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: AC Milan 2.24 · Monza 0.67. On the pitch: 2-0.
Shots AC Milan 21 · Monza 6; on target 6 and 2.
AC Milan kept the ball more (55%).

Referee

D. Rutella→

6.18

yellows per match

0.36

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 78.1%: “AC Milan to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 14.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.77 for AC Milan, 0.86 for Monza.
The highest double chance value is 92.4% (1X — AC Milan win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,133 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

AC Milan to win78.1%

Draw14.2%

Monza to win7.6%

When the model has said 75–80% in the past, 449 of 540 predictions were correct (83.1%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

8	Fouls	9

0	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 2,565 of 4,457 predictions were correct (57.5%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — AC Milan win or draw92.4%

12 — any result other than a draw85.8%

X2 — draw or Monza win21.9%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (14.2%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

AC Milan lead at half-time47.8%

Level at half-time40.4%

Monza lead at half-time11.7%

First-half double chance

1X — AC Milan ahead or level88.3%

12 — not level at half-time59.6%

X2 — level or Monza ahead52.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1133 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

AC Milan: at least 11Actual: 8
Monza: at least 11Actual: 9

Corners

AC Milan: at least 6Actual: 4
Monza: at least 2Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals71.6%

When the model has said 70–75% in the past, 405 of 553 predictions were correct (73.2%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 47.6%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals AC Milan score2.24

Attack: AC Milan score above the league average (38% more).

Opponent's defence: Monza concede 27% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: A strong attack meets a weak defence. The effects compound and the expectation rises to 2.24 goals.

How many goals Monza score0.67

Attack: Monza score below the league average (27% fewer).

Opponent's defence: AC Milan's defence is close to the league average (0.94×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.67 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–010.3%3–09.7%2–19.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1133 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 113 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.