Serie A · Italy · Regular Season - 37

Monza–Empoli

1–3

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 18 May 2025 at 18:45
Status: Match Finished
Venue: U-Power Stadium, Monza

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

30'MonzaSamuele Birindelli (assist: G. Caprari)
49'EmpoliLorenzo Colombo (assist: Jacopo Fazzini)
51'EmpoliM. Viti (assist: L. Cacace)
59'EmpoliS. Pizzignacco (own goal)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Monza		Empoli
12	Shots	9
4	Shots on target	4
5	Shots inside the box	5
2	Goalkeeper saves	3
2	Corners	6
3	Offsides	1
68%	Possession	32%
653	Passes	294
588	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Monza 1.16 · Empoli 1.14. On the pitch: 1-3.
Shots Monza 12 · Empoli 9; on target 4 and 4.
Monza kept the ball more (68%).

Referee

L. Marinelli→

4.05

yellows per match

0.29

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 55.4%: “Empoli to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 26.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.84 for Monza, 1.60 for Empoli.
The highest double chance value is 81.9% (X2 — draw or Empoli win).
These values were computed from 1,121 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Monza to win18.1%

Draw26.5%

Empoli to win55.4%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,158 of 1,982 predictions were correct (58.4%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

8	Fouls	16

0	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Monza lead at half-time22.2%

Level at half-time46.4%

Empoli lead at half-time31.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Monza ahead or level68.6%

12 — not level at half-time53.6%

X2 — level or Empoli ahead77.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1121 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Monza: at least 12Actual: 8
Empoli: at least 14Actual: 16

Corners

Monza: at least 4Actual: 2
Empoli: at least 3Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Monza score1.16

Attack: Monza score below the league average (27% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Empoli's defence is close to the league average (1.11×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.16 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Empoli score1.14

Attack: Empoli score below the league average (27% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Monza concede 25% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.14 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.4%0–113.3%0–211.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.