Serie A · Italy · Regular Season - 37

AS Roma–AC Milan

3–1

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 18 May 2025 at 18:45
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadio Olimpico, Roma

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

3'AS RomaGianluca Mancini (assist: Matías Soulé)
21'AC MilanS. Gimenez · red card
39'AC MilanJoão Félix (assist: Álex Jiménez)
58'AS RomaL. Paredes
87'AS RomaBryan Cristante (assist: Stephan El Shaarawy)

Match statistics

Match statistics
AS Roma		AC Milan
15	Shots	12
6	Shots on target	3
9	Shots inside the box	10
2	Goalkeeper saves	3
4	Corners	2
0	Offsides	0
54%	Possession	46%
552	Passes	476
507	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: AS Roma 1.38 · AC Milan 1.30. On the pitch: 3-1.
Shots AS Roma 15 · AC Milan 12; on target 6 and 3.

Referee

M. Piccinini→

4.42

yellows per match

0.12

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 44.0%: “AS Roma to win”. Second comes “AC Milan to win” at 29.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.59 for AS Roma, 1.28 for AC Milan.
The highest double chance value is 73.5% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,121 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

AS Roma to win44.0%

Draw26.5%

AC Milan to win29.4%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

12	Fouls	16

3	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	1

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,567 of 2,553 predictions were correct (61.4%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — AS Roma win or draw70.6%

12 — any result other than a draw73.5%

X2 — draw or AC Milan win56.0%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (26.5%).

First half

Actual: 1–1

AS Roma lead at half-time28.4%

Level at half-time45.8%

AC Milan lead at half-time25.8%

First-half double chance

1X — AS Roma ahead or level74.2%

12 — not level at half-time54.2%

X2 — level or AC Milan ahead71.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1121 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

AS Roma: at least 10Actual: 12
AC Milan: at least 11Actual: 16

Corners

AS Roma: at least 4Actual: 4
AC Milan: at least 4Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals55.6%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,528 of 2,652 predictions were correct (57.6%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 47.5%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals AS Roma score1.38

Attack: AS Roma score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: AC Milan's defence is close to the league average (0.93×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.38 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals AC Milan score1.30

Attack: AC Milan score above the league average (38% more).

Opponent's defence: AS Roma concede 16% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.30 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.2%2–110.1%1–08.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1121 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 112 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.