Serie A · Italy · Regular Season - 37

Cagliari–Venezia

3–0

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 18 May 2025 at 18:45
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Unipol Domus, Cagliari

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — we gave this result 35%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

11'CagliariY. Mina (assist: T. Augello)
41'CagliariRoberto Piccoli (assist: N. Zortea)
71'CagliariAlessandro Deiola (assist: A. Makoumbou)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Cagliari		Venezia
20	Shots	10
5	Shots on target	1
14	Shots inside the box	7
1	Goalkeeper saves	2
8	Corners	8
2	Offsides	1
43%	Possession	57%
352	Passes	484
270	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Cagliari 1.37 · Venezia 1.13. On the pitch: 3-0.
Shots Cagliari 20 · Venezia 10; on target 5 and 1.
Venezia kept the ball more (57%).

Referee

L. Pairetto→

4.53

yellows per match

0.22

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 35.2%: “Cagliari to win”. Second comes “Venezia to win” at 35.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.20 for Cagliari, 1.19 for Venezia.
The highest double chance value is 70.2% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,121 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Cagliari to win35.2%

Draw29.8%

Venezia to win35.0%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

7	Fouls	9

1	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 2–0

Cagliari lead at half-time21.5%

Level at half-time49.7%

Venezia lead at half-time28.8%

First-half double chance

1X — Cagliari ahead or level71.2%

12 — not level at half-time50.3%

X2 — level or Venezia ahead78.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1121 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Cagliari: at least 12Actual: 7
Venezia: at least 11Actual: 9

Corners

Cagliari: at least 5Actual: 8
Venezia: at least 3Actual: 8

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Cagliari score1.37

Attack: Cagliari score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Venezia's defence is close to the league average (1.11×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.37 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Venezia score1.13

Attack: Venezia score below the league average (17% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Cagliari concede 15% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.13 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.1%1–010.0%0–110.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.