Serie A · Italy · Regular Season - 36

Udinese–Monza

1–2

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 11 May 2025 at 10:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Bluenergy Stadium, Udine

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 16%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

52'MonzaG. Caprari
75'UdineseLorenzo Lucca (assist: Jesper Karlström)
90'MonzaK. Balde (assist: K. Zeroli)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Udinese		Monza
21	Shots	5
5	Shots on target	2
11	Shots inside the box	5
0	Goalkeeper saves	4
7	Corners	0
2	Offsides	2
60%	Possession	40%
486	Passes	341
429	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Udinese 1.51 · Monza 0.90. On the pitch: 1-2.
Shots Udinese 21 · Monza 5; on target 5 and 2.
Udinese kept the ball more (60%).

Referee

V. Crezzini→

4.07

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

14 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 59.9%: “Udinese to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 23.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.84 for Udinese, 0.89 for Monza.
The highest double chance value is 83.7% (1X — Udinese win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,114 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Udinese to win59.9%

Draw23.8%

Monza to win16.3%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,158 of 1,982 predictions were correct (58.4%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

21	Fouls	8

2	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 2,597 of 5,092 predictions were correct (51.0%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Udinese win or draw83.7%

12 — any result other than a draw76.2%

X2 — draw or Monza win40.1%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (23.8%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

Udinese lead at half-time36.9%

Level at half-time44.1%

Monza lead at half-time19.0%

First-half double chance

1X — Udinese ahead or level81.0%

12 — not level at half-time55.9%

X2 — level or Monza ahead63.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1114 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Udinese: at least 13Actual: 21
Monza: at least 11Actual: 8

Corners

Udinese: at least 5
Monza: at least 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals51.9%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,761 of 3,286 predictions were correct (53.6%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 47.4%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Udinese score1.51

Attack: Udinese score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Monza concede 26% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.51 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Monza score0.90

Attack: Monza score below the league average (29% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Udinese's defence is close to the league average (1.04×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.90 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.1%2–011.3%1–011.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1114 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 111 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.