Serie A · Italy · Regular Season - 36

Empoli–Parma

2–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 10 May 2025 at 18:45
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena, Empoli

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

11'EmpoliJacopo Fazzini (assist: L. Henderson)
31'ParmaLautaro Valenti · red card
73'ParmaMilan Đurić (assist: Hernani)
86'EmpoliF. Anjorin (assist: I. Konate)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Empoli		Parma
15	Shots	3
4	Shots on target	1
6	Shots inside the box	2
0	Goalkeeper saves	2
4	Corners	0
3	Offsides	0
46%	Possession	54%
315	Passes	379
213	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Empoli 1.17 · Parma 1.28. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots Empoli 15 · Parma 3; on target 4 and 1.

Referee

M. Fabbri→

4.47

yellows per match

0.23

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 41.1%: “Empoli to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 30.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.25 for Empoli, 1.01 for Parma.
The highest double chance value is 71.5% (1X — Empoli win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,113 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Empoli to win41.1%

Draw30.4%

Parma to win28.5%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

21	Fouls	16

2	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	1

First half

Actual: 1–0

Empoli lead at half-time25.5%

Level at half-time47.9%

Parma lead at half-time26.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Empoli ahead or level73.4%

12 — not level at half-time52.1%

X2 — level or Parma ahead74.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1113 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Empoli: at least 12Actual: 21
Parma: at least 11Actual: 16

Corners

Empoli: at least 5
Parma: at least 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Empoli score1.17

Attack: Empoli score below the league average (27% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Parma concede 17% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.17 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Parma score1.28

Attack: Parma score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Empoli's defence is close to the league average (1.13×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.28 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.2%1–012.3%0–010.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.