Serie A · Italy · Regular Season - 34

Como–Genoa

1–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 27 April 2025 at 10:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia, Como

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

59'ComoG. Strefezza (assist: Patrick Cutrone)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Como		Genoa
14	Shots	4
3	Shots on target	1
7	Shots inside the box	2
1	Goalkeeper saves	2
6	Corners	3
1	Offsides	1
53%	Possession	47%
461	Passes	411
383	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Como 1.39 · Genoa 0.93. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots Como 14 · Genoa 4; on target 3 and 1.

Referee

A. Arena→

4.93

yellows per match

0.14

reds per match

matches of data

14 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 54.4%: “Como to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 26.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.66 for Como, 0.93 for Genoa.
The highest double chance value is 80.4% (1X — Como win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,090 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Como to win54.4%

Draw26.0%

Genoa to win19.6%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

19	Fouls	15

2	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 2,597 of 5,092 predictions were correct (51.0%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Como win or draw80.4%

12 — any result other than a draw74.0%

X2 — draw or Genoa win45.6%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (26.0%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

Como lead at half-time40.0%

Level at half-time46.1%

Genoa lead at half-time13.9%

First-half double chance

1X — Como ahead or level86.1%

12 — not level at half-time53.9%

X2 — level or Genoa ahead60.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1090 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Como: at least 11Actual: 19
Genoa: at least 13Actual: 15

Corners

Como: at least 4Actual: 6
Genoa: at least 3Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals48.5%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,604 of 3,461 predictions were correct (46.3%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 47.7%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Como score1.39

Attack: Como score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Genoa's defence is close to the league average (0.94×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.39 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Genoa score0.93

Attack: Genoa score below the league average (20% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Como's defence is close to the league average (0.93×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.93 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.2%1–011.7%2–110.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1090 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 33 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.