Serie A · Italy · Regular Season - 32

Napoli–Empoli

3–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Monday, 14 April 2025 at 18:45
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadio Diego Armando Maradona, Napoli

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

18'NapoliS. McTominay (assist: R. Lukaku)
56'NapoliR. Lukaku (assist: Mathías Olivera)
61'NapoliS. McTominay (assist: R. Lukaku)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Napoli		Empoli
17	Shots	12
6	Shots on target	1
11	Shots inside the box	9
1	Goalkeeper saves	3
5	Corners	5
1	Offsides	0
63%	Possession	37%
543	Passes	308
481	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Napoli 1.85 · Empoli 0.64. On the pitch: 3-0.
Shots Napoli 17 · Empoli 12; on target 6 and 1.
Napoli kept the ball more (63%).

Referee

M. Fabbri→

4.53

yellows per match

0.24

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 67.3%: “Napoli to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 21.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.91 for Napoli, 0.67 for Empoli.
The highest double chance value is 89.0% (1X — Napoli win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,079 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Napoli to win67.3%

Draw21.7%

Empoli to win11.0%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 675 of 977 predictions were correct (69.1%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

8	Fouls	15

1	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 469 of 1,102 predictions were correct (42.6%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Napoli win or draw89.0%

12 — any result other than a draw78.3%

X2 — draw or Empoli win32.7%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (21.7%).

First half

Actual: 1–0

Napoli lead at half-time39.7%

Level at half-time44.7%

Empoli lead at half-time15.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Napoli ahead or level84.4%

12 — not level at half-time55.3%

X2 — level or Empoli ahead60.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1079 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Napoli: at least 10Actual: 8
Empoli: at least 13Actual: 15

Corners

Napoli: at least 6Actual: 5
Empoli: at least 2Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals48.2%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,604 of 3,461 predictions were correct (46.3%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 47.8%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Napoli score1.85

Attack: Napoli score above the league average (21% more).

Opponent's defence: Empoli's defence is close to the league average (1.09×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.85 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Empoli score0.64

Attack: Empoli score below the league average (26% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Napoli concede 29% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.64 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–014.3%1–013.8%1–110.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1079 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 107 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.