Serie A · Italy · Regular Season - 16

Juventus–Venezia

2–2

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 14 December 2024 at 19:45
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Allianz Stadium, Torino

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 20%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

19'JuventusF. Gatti (assist: K. Thuram)
61'VeneziaMikael Ellertsson (assist: F. Zampano)
83'VeneziaJay Idzes (assist: H. Nicolussi Caviglia)
90+5'JuventusD. Vlahovic (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Juventus		Venezia
12	Shots	8
4	Shots on target	2
9	Shots inside the box	6
0	Goalkeeper saves	3
7	Corners	4
2	Offsides	0
69%	Possession	31%
681	Passes	305
620	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Juventus 1.83 · Venezia 0.73. On the pitch: 2-2.
Shots Juventus 12 · Venezia 8; on target 4 and 2.
Juventus kept the ball more (69%).

Referee

A. Giua→

4.93

yellows per match

0.21

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 70.2%: “Juventus to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 20.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.02 for Juventus, 0.65 for Venezia.
The highest double chance value is 90.4% (1X — Juventus win or draw).
These values were computed from 911 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Juventus to win70.2%

Draw20.2%

Venezia to win9.6%

When the model has said 70–75% in the past, 560 of 732 predictions were correct (76.5%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

9	Fouls	8

1	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Juventus lead at half-time42.5%

Level at half-time40.9%

Venezia lead at half-time16.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Juventus ahead or level83.4%

12 — not level at half-time59.1%

X2 — level or Venezia ahead57.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 911 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Juventus: at least 11Actual: 9
Venezia: at least 10Actual: 8

Corners

Juventus: at least 6Actual: 7
Venezia: at least 3Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Juventus score1.83

Attack: Juventus score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Venezia's defence is close to the league average (1.13×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.83 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Venezia score0.73

Attack: Venezia score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Juventus concede 34% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.73 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–014.6%1–013.3%1–110.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.