NB I · Hungary · Regular Season - 6

Nyiregyhaza–Paks

1–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 29 August 2026 at 12:45
Status: Match Finished

Goals and red cards

50'PaksZ. Haraszti
88'NyiregyhazaJ. Batoum (assist: Z. Medved)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Nyiregyhaza		Paks
21	Shots	11
4	Shots on target	5
15	Shots inside the box	5
4	Goalkeeper saves	3
6	Corners	5
2	Offsides	5
51%	Possession	49%
422	Passes	308
305	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Nyiregyhaza 1.49 · Paks 1.83. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Nyiregyhaza 21 · Paks 11; on target 4 and 5.

Referee

B. Berke→

4.31

yellows per match

0.17

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 45.1%: “Paks to win”. Second comes “Nyiregyhaza to win” at 30.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.49 for Nyiregyhaza, 1.83 for Paks.
The highest double chance value is 75.5% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 821 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Nyiregyhaza to win30.4%

Draw24.5%

Paks to win45.1%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,070 of 4,393 predictions were correct (47.1%). Accuracy record →

15	Fouls	17

3	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

Double chance

1X — Nyiregyhaza win or draw54.9%

12 — any result other than a draw75.5%

X2 — draw or Paks win69.6%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (24.5%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

Nyiregyhaza lead at half-time18.9%

Level at half-time38.3%

Paks lead at half-time42.8%

First-half double chance

1X — Nyiregyhaza ahead or level57.2%

12 — not level at half-time61.7%

X2 — level or Paks ahead81.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 821 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Nyiregyhaza: at least 12Actual: 15
Paks: at least 13Actual: 17

Corners

Nyiregyhaza: at least 4Actual: 6
Paks: at least 4Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals65.6%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 969 of 1,384 predictions were correct (70.0%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 56.2%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Nyiregyhaza score1.49

Attack: Nyiregyhaza score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Paks's defence is close to the league average (1.10×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.49 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Paks score1.83

Attack: Paks score above the league average (31% more).

Opponent's defence: Nyiregyhaza's defence is close to the league average (1.11×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.83 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.1%1–29.9%2–17.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.