NB I · Hungary · Regular Season - 3

Debreceni VSC–Nyiregyhaza

1–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 9 August 2026 at 15:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Nagyerdei Stadion, Debrecen

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Goals and red cards

55'Debreceni VSCB. Dzsudzsak (assist: C. Denes)
90+2'NyiregyhazaA. Temesvari · red card

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Debreceni VSC 1.86 · Nyiregyhaza 1.21. On the pitch: 1-0.

Referee

M. Rusz→

4.20

yellows per match

0.27

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 52.3%: “Debreceni VSC to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 24.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.86 for Debreceni VSC, 1.21 for Nyiregyhaza.
The highest double chance value is 76.7% (1X — Debreceni VSC win or draw).
These values were computed from 808 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Debreceni VSC to win52.3%

Draw24.4%

Nyiregyhaza to win23.3%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,798 of 3,471 predictions were correct (51.8%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Debreceni VSC win or draw76.7%

12 — any result other than a draw75.6%

X2 — draw or Nyiregyhaza win47.7%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (24.4%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

Debreceni VSC lead at half-time35.8%

Level at half-time41.2%

Nyiregyhaza lead at half-time23.1%

First-half double chance

1X — Debreceni VSC ahead or level76.9%

12 — not level at half-time58.8%

X2 — level or Nyiregyhaza ahead64.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 808 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Debreceni VSC: at least 12
Nyiregyhaza: at least 13

Corners

Debreceni VSC: at least 4
Nyiregyhaza: at least 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals60.2%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,726 of 2,749 predictions were correct (62.8%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 56.3%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Debreceni VSC score1.86

Attack: Debreceni VSC score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Nyiregyhaza's defence is close to the league average (1.12×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.86 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Nyiregyhaza score1.21

Attack: Nyiregyhaza score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Debreceni VSC's defence is close to the league average (0.97×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.21 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.8%2–110.7%2–08.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Week 3 of the season. This prediction was computed from previous seasons. Summer transfers, budget changes and squad rebuilds aren't in the ratings yet — the model can only see that a team has been rebuilt once new results come in.

We measured this: the bias is only pronounced in the opening week. In this week the model's overall accuracy does not separate from the rest of the season — that is, we found no measurable flaw. The one tendency across all opening weeks is that home wins are called slightly too often (said 43.0%, got 41.9%; n=583).

This sample is small and not statistically established, which is why we do not correct the model for it. The correction we tried (pulling probabilities toward the league average) didn't win on holdout, so it wasn't added. Read opening-week predictions with a little more caution.