NB I · Hungary · Regular Season - 2

Gyori ETO FC–Nyiregyhaza

4–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 2 August 2026 at 15:30
Status: Match Finished

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Goals and red cards

22'Gyori ETO FCN. Urblik (assist: D. Stefulj)
48'Gyori ETO FCN. Njie
82'Gyori ETO FCViktor Đukanović (assist: M. Huszar)
86'Gyori ETO FCK. Banati

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Gyori ETO FC 2.15 · Nyiregyhaza 0.87. On the pitch: 4-0.

Referee

B. Berke→

4.29

yellows per match

0.17

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 67.2%: “Gyori ETO FC to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 20.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.15 for Gyori ETO FC, 0.87 for Nyiregyhaza.
The highest double chance value is 87.5% (1X — Gyori ETO FC win or draw).
These values were computed from 801 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Gyori ETO FC to win67.2%

Draw20.2%

Nyiregyhaza to win12.5%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 1,039 of 1,527 predictions were correct (68.0%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Gyori ETO FC win or draw87.5%

12 — any result other than a draw79.8%

X2 — draw or Nyiregyhaza win32.8%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (20.2%).

First half

Actual: 1–0

Gyori ETO FC lead at half-time51.0%

Level at half-time38.3%

Nyiregyhaza lead at half-time10.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Gyori ETO FC ahead or level89.4%

12 — not level at half-time61.7%

X2 — level or Nyiregyhaza ahead49.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 801 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Gyori ETO FC: at least 10
Nyiregyhaza: at least 13

Corners

Gyori ETO FC: at least 5
Nyiregyhaza: at least 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals59.1%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 2,356 of 4,136 predictions were correct (57.0%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 56.1%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Gyori ETO FC score2.15

Attack: Gyori ETO FC score above the league average (23% more).

Opponent's defence: Nyiregyhaza's defence is close to the league average (1.09×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.15 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Nyiregyhaza score0.87

Attack: Nyiregyhaza score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Gyori ETO FC concede 33% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.87 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–011.6%2–110.8%1–110.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Week 2 of the season. This prediction was computed from previous seasons. Summer transfers, budget changes and squad rebuilds aren't in the ratings yet — the model can only see that a team has been rebuilt once new results come in.

We measured this: the bias is only pronounced in the opening week. In this week the model's overall accuracy does not separate from the rest of the season — that is, we found no measurable flaw. The one tendency across all opening weeks is that home wins are called slightly too often (said 43.0%, got 41.9%; n=583).

This sample is small and not statistically established, which is why we do not correct the model for it. The correction we tried (pulling probabilities toward the league average) didn't win on holdout, so it wasn't added. Read opening-week predictions with a little more caution.