Super Liga · Serbia · Regular Season - 9

Radnicki 1923–Mladost Lucani

5–0

HT 3–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 12 September 2026 at 18:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

6'Radnicki 1923Issa Bah
10'Radnicki 1923Mohamed Cissé (assist: Slobodan Simović)
45+2'Radnicki 1923Nemanja Glavčić (assist: D. Buchta)
65'Radnicki 1923D. Buchta (assist: Mohamed Cissé)
84'Radnicki 1923J. Zivkovic (assist: M. Mezghrani)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Radnicki 1923		Mladost Lucani
25	Shots	5
12	Shots on target	1
16	Shots inside the box	4
0	Goalkeeper saves	7
8	Corners	7
3	Offsides	1
65%	Possession	35%
448	Passes	316
357	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Radnicki 1923 1.67 · Mladost Lucani 0.69. On the pitch: 5-0.
Shots Radnicki 1923 25 · Mladost Lucani 5; on target 12 and 1.
Radnicki 1923 kept the ball more (65%).

Referee

The referee for this match hasn't been announced by the data provider yet. We don't guess it.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 61.0%: “Radnicki 1923 to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 25.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.67 for Radnicki 1923, 0.69 for Mladost Lucani.
The highest double chance value is 86.2% (1X — Radnicki 1923 win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,127 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Radnicki 1923 to win61.0%

Draw25.1%

Mladost Lucani to win13.8%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,325 of 2,113 predictions were correct (62.7%). Accuracy record →

13	Fouls	10

2	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 3–0

Radnicki 1923 lead at half-time35.4%

Level at half-time45.5%

Mladost Lucani lead at half-time19.1%

First-half double chance

1X — Radnicki 1923 ahead or level80.9%

12 — not level at half-time54.5%

X2 — level or Mladost Lucani ahead64.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1127 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Radnicki 1923: at least 13Actual: 13
Mladost Lucani: at least 14Actual: 10

Corners

Radnicki 1923: at least 5Actual: 8
Mladost Lucani: at least 3Actual: 7

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Radnicki 1923 score1.67

Attack: Radnicki 1923 score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Mladost Lucani's defence is close to the league average (1.02×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.67 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Mladost Lucani score0.69

Attack: Mladost Lucani score below the league average (33% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Radnicki 1923's defence is close to the league average (0.85×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.69 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–015.3%2–013.6%1–112.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.