Super Liga · Serbia · Regular Season - 8

Radnik Surdulica–Cukaricki

3–1

HT 3–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 5 September 2026 at 16:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadion FK Radnik, Sudulika

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

8'Radnik SurdulicaM. Novaković (assist: Đ. Jovanović)
23'Radnik SurdulicaV. Bogdanović (penalty)
35'Radnik SurdulicaV. Bogdanović (assist: M. Novaković)
51'CukarickiMarko Docić
90+10'Radnik SurdulicaA. Kosiah · red card

Match statistics

Match statistics
Radnik Surdulica		Cukaricki
11	Shots	18
4	Shots on target	6
6	Shots inside the box	8
5	Goalkeeper saves	1
6	Corners	6
1	Offsides	3
42%	Possession	58%
354	Passes	371
256	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Radnik Surdulica 1.33 · Cukaricki 1.05. On the pitch: 3-1.
Shots Radnik Surdulica 11 · Cukaricki 18; on target 4 and 6.
Cukaricki kept the ball more (58%).

Referee

L. Lukic→

4.00

yellows per match

0.30

reds per match

matches of data

10 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 42.2%: “Radnik Surdulica to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 29.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.33 for Radnik Surdulica, 1.05 for Cukaricki.
The highest double chance value is 71.7% (1X — Radnik Surdulica win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,118 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Radnik Surdulica to win42.2%

Draw29.5%

Cukaricki to win28.3%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 2,356 of 5,296 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

17	Fouls	17

3	Yellow cards	2

1	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 3–0

Radnik Surdulica lead at half-time35.9%

Level at half-time43.6%

Cukaricki lead at half-time20.5%

First-half double chance

1X — Radnik Surdulica ahead or level79.5%

12 — not level at half-time56.4%

X2 — level or Cukaricki ahead64.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1118 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Radnik Surdulica: at least 13Actual: 17
Cukaricki: at least 14Actual: 17

Corners

Radnik Surdulica: at least 4Actual: 6
Cukaricki: at least 3Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Radnik Surdulica score1.33

Attack: Radnik Surdulica score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Cukaricki's defence is close to the league average (0.94×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.33 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Cukaricki score1.05

Attack: Cukaricki score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Radnik Surdulica's defence is close to the league average (0.91×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.05 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.9%1–011.5%2–19.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.