Super Liga · Serbia · Regular Season - 8

FK Crvena Zvezda–FK Partizan

2–1

HT 2–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 6 September 2026 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished

Goals and red cards

1'FK PartizanJeh
17'FK Crvena ZvezdaB. Dieng (assist: M. Ivanic)
28'FK Crvena ZvezdaM. Ivanic (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
FK Crvena Zvezda		FK Partizan
11	Shots	12
4	Shots on target	4
8	Shots inside the box	9
4	Goalkeeper saves	2
2	Corners	4
4	Offsides	1
44%	Possession	56%
398	Passes	369
338	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: FK Crvena Zvezda 2.59 · FK Partizan 0.69. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots FK Crvena Zvezda 11 · FK Partizan 12; on target 4 and 4.
FK Partizan kept the ball more (56%).

Referee

Nenad Minaković, Serbia→

5.00

yellows per match

0.13

reds per match

matches of data

8 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 79.1%: “FK Crvena Zvezda to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 14.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.59 for FK Crvena Zvezda, 0.69 for FK Partizan.
The highest double chance value is 93.5% (1X — FK Crvena Zvezda win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,121 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

FK Crvena Zvezda to win79.1%

Draw14.4%

FK Partizan to win6.5%

When the model has said 75–80% in the past, 449 of 540 predictions were correct (83.1%). Accuracy record →

21	Fouls	18

6	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 2–1

FK Crvena Zvezda lead at half-time59.5%

Level at half-time33.3%

FK Partizan lead at half-time7.2%

First-half double chance

1X — FK Crvena Zvezda ahead or level92.8%

12 — not level at half-time66.7%

X2 — level or FK Partizan ahead40.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1121 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

FK Crvena Zvezda: at least 11Actual: 21
FK Partizan: at least 11Actual: 18

Corners

FK Crvena Zvezda: at least 5Actual: 2
FK Partizan: at least 3Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals FK Crvena Zvezda score2.59

Attack: FK Crvena Zvezda score 113% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: FK Partizan's defence is close to the league average (0.87×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.59 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals FK Partizan score0.69

Attack: FK Partizan score above the league average (38% more).

Opponent's defence: FK Crvena Zvezda concede 37% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: A strong attack meets a strong defence. The two largely cancel and the expectation drops to 0.69 goals — markedly lower than the attack alone would promise.

Most likely scorelines

2–013.0%3–011.3%2–19.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.