Super Liga · Serbia · Regular Season - 7

Železničar Pančevo–Radnik Surdulica

5–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 29 August 2026 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

11'Radnik SurdulicaL. Zoric (assist: Ayouba Kosiah)
51'Železničar PančevoJanko Jevremović (assist: Aleksa Kuljanin)
61'Železničar PančevoKwaku Karikari
67'Železničar PančevoAleksa Kuljanin (assist: Kwaku Karikari)
72'Železničar PančevoKwaku Karikari (assist: S. Plavsic)
90+2'Železničar PančevoKwaku Karikari

Match statistics

Match statistics
Železničar Pančevo		Radnik Surdulica
17	Shots	6
9	Shots on target	2
14	Shots inside the box	2
1	Goalkeeper saves	5
6	Corners	1
0	Offsides	1
63%	Possession	37%
555	Passes	327
499	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Železničar Pančevo 1.25 · Radnik Surdulica 0.93. On the pitch: 5-1.
Shots Železničar Pančevo 17 · Radnik Surdulica 6; on target 9 and 2.
Železničar Pančevo kept the ball more (63%).

Referee

M. Ilic→

6.50

yellows per match

0.20

reds per match

matches of data

10 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 43.1%: “Železničar Pančevo to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 30.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.25 for Železničar Pančevo, 0.93 for Radnik Surdulica.
The highest double chance value is 73.8% (1X — Železničar Pančevo win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,110 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Železničar Pančevo to win43.1%

Draw30.7%

Radnik Surdulica to win26.2%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 2,518 of 5,655 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

17	Fouls	16

3	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

Železničar Pančevo lead at half-time35.4%

Level at half-time45.0%

Radnik Surdulica lead at half-time19.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Železničar Pančevo ahead or level80.4%

12 — not level at half-time55.0%

X2 — level or Radnik Surdulica ahead64.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1110 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Železničar Pančevo: at least 12Actual: 17
Radnik Surdulica: at least 15Actual: 16

Corners

Železničar Pančevo: at least 4Actual: 6
Radnik Surdulica: at least 3Actual: 1

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Železničar Pančevo score1.25

Attack: Železničar Pančevo score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Radnik Surdulica concede 18% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.25 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Radnik Surdulica score0.93

Attack: Radnik Surdulica score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Železničar Pančevo concede 17% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.93 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.2%1–013.4%0–011.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.