Super Liga · Serbia · Regular Season - 7

Cukaricki–Vojvodina

0–5

HT 0–2

Kick-off: Saturday, 29 August 2026 at 19:00
Status: Match Finished

Goals and red cards

11'VojvodinaD. Zukic (assist: L. Randjelovic)
44'VojvodinaD. Kokanovic (assist: L. Randjelovic)
48'VojvodinaD. Zukic (assist: Njegoš Petrović)
50'VojvodinaSambou Sissoko (own goal)
85'VojvodinaS. Mitrovic (assist: M. Poletanović)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Cukaricki		Vojvodina
15	Shots	17
7	Shots on target	10
8	Shots inside the box	8
6	Goalkeeper saves	6
12	Corners	4
2	Offsides	3
51%	Possession	49%
341	Passes	341
277	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Cukaricki 1.24 · Vojvodina 1.35. On the pitch: 0-5.
Shots Cukaricki 15 · Vojvodina 17; on target 7 and 10.

Referee

M. Milanovic→

3.40

yellows per match

0.20

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 38.6%: “Vojvodina to win”. Second comes “Cukaricki to win” at 33.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.24 for Cukaricki, 1.35 for Vojvodina.
The highest double chance value is 71.5% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,111 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Cukaricki to win33.0%

Draw28.5%

Vojvodina to win38.6%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

10	Fouls	16

2	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–2

Cukaricki lead at half-time35.7%

Level at half-time43.6%

Vojvodina lead at half-time20.7%

First-half double chance

1X — Cukaricki ahead or level79.3%

12 — not level at half-time56.4%

X2 — level or Vojvodina ahead64.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1111 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Cukaricki: at least 13Actual: 10
Vojvodina: at least 12Actual: 16

Corners

Cukaricki: at least 3Actual: 12
Vojvodina: at least 4Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Cukaricki score1.24

Attack: Cukaricki score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Vojvodina concede 19% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.24 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Vojvodina score1.35

Attack: Vojvodina score above the league average (35% more).

Opponent's defence: Cukaricki's defence is close to the league average (0.91×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.35 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.5%1–29.3%0–19.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.