Super Liga · Serbia · Regular Season - 6

Radnicki 1923–IMT Novi Beograd

2–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 22 August 2026 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished

Goals and red cards

2'Radnicki 1923Slobodan Simović (assist: B. Nikcevic)
82'Radnicki 1923Issa Bah (penalty)
88'IMT Novi BeogradN. Glisic (assist: V. Novicic)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Radnicki 1923		IMT Novi Beograd
15	Shots	4
5	Shots on target	2
10	Shots inside the box	2
1	Goalkeeper saves	3
8	Corners	5
2	Offsides	0
58%	Possession	42%
339	Passes	255
239	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Radnicki 1923 1.31 · IMT Novi Beograd 1.18. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots Radnicki 1923 15 · IMT Novi Beograd 4; on target 5 and 2.
Radnicki 1923 kept the ball more (58%).

Referee

N. Minakovic→

5.27

yellows per match

0.40

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 38.5%: “Radnicki 1923 to win”. Second comes “IMT Novi Beograd to win” at 32.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.31 for Radnicki 1923, 1.18 for IMT Novi Beograd.
The highest double chance value is 70.9% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,104 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Radnicki 1923 to win38.5%

Draw29.1%

IMT Novi Beograd to win32.4%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

16	Fouls	21

5	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Radnicki 1923 lead at half-time44.3%

Level at half-time42.4%

IMT Novi Beograd lead at half-time13.2%

First-half double chance

1X — Radnicki 1923 ahead or level86.8%

12 — not level at half-time57.6%

X2 — level or IMT Novi Beograd ahead55.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1104 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Radnicki 1923: at least 13Actual: 16
IMT Novi Beograd: at least 15Actual: 21

Corners

Radnicki 1923: at least 4Actual: 8
IMT Novi Beograd: at least 4Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Radnicki 1923 score1.31

Attack: Radnicki 1923 score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: IMT Novi Beograd concede 18% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.31 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals IMT Novi Beograd score1.18

Attack: IMT Novi Beograd score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Radnicki 1923's defence is close to the league average (0.92×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.18 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.8%1–09.9%2–19.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.