Super Liga · Serbia · Regular Season - 4

OFK Beograd–Železničar Pančevo

2–2

HT 1–2

Kick-off: Sunday, 9 August 2026 at 19:00
Status: Match Finished

Goals and red cards

6'Železničar PančevoJanko Jevremović (assist: S. Pedro)
18'Železničar PančevoS. Pedro (assist: Janko Jevremović)
25'OFK BeogradD. Y. Silue (assist: M. Gobeljić)
72'OFK BeogradD. Rankovic (assist: U. Stojanovic)
90+4'Železničar PančevoUroš Tegeltija · red card

Match statistics

Match statistics
OFK Beograd		Železničar Pančevo
12	Shots	10
2	Shots on target	5
8	Shots inside the box	6
3	Goalkeeper saves	1
2	Corners	4
4	Offsides	1
45%	Possession	55%
360	Passes	449
272	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: OFK Beograd 1.27 · Železničar Pančevo 1.12. On the pitch: 2-2.
Shots OFK Beograd 12 · Železničar Pančevo 10; on target 2 and 5.
Železničar Pančevo kept the ball more (55%).

Referee

N. Minakovic→

5.08

yellows per match

0.38

reds per match

matches of data

13 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 39.0%: “OFK Beograd to win”. Second comes “Železničar Pančevo to win” at 31.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.27 for OFK Beograd, 1.12 for Železničar Pančevo.
The highest double chance value is 70.3% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,095 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

OFK Beograd to win39.0%

Draw29.7%

Železničar Pančevo to win31.3%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

22	Fouls	14

5	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	1

First half

Actual: 1–2

OFK Beograd lead at half-time34.1%

Level at half-time43.9%

Železničar Pančevo lead at half-time21.9%

First-half double chance

1X — OFK Beograd ahead or level78.1%

12 — not level at half-time56.1%

X2 — level or Železničar Pančevo ahead65.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1095 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

OFK Beograd: at least 13Actual: 22
Železničar Pančevo: at least 13Actual: 14

Corners

OFK Beograd: at least 4Actual: 2
Železničar Pančevo: at least 3Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals OFK Beograd score1.27

Attack: OFK Beograd score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Železničar Pančevo concede 21% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.27 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Železničar Pančevo score1.12

Attack: Železničar Pančevo score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: OFK Beograd's defence is close to the league average (0.99×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.12 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.1%1–010.8%0–19.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.