Super Liga · Serbia · Regular Season - 4

Mladost Lucani–Cukaricki

2–2

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 9 August 2026 at 19:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 30%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

18'CukarickiA. Cisse
80'CukarickiA. Nanque (assist: L. Stojanovic)
83'Mladost LucaniM. Todosijevic (assist: V. Kijevcanin)
90'Mladost LucaniN. Cirkovic (assist: A. Varjacic)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Mladost Lucani		Cukaricki
18	Shots	4
4	Shots on target	2
13	Shots inside the box	3
0	Goalkeeper saves	2
10	Corners	3
5	Offsides	1
59%	Possession	41%
413	Passes	307
335	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Mladost Lucani 0.99 · Cukaricki 1.32. On the pitch: 2-2.
Shots Mladost Lucani 18 · Cukaricki 4; on target 4 and 2.
Mladost Lucani kept the ball more (59%).

Referee

N. Radakovic→

2.83

yellows per match

0.50

reds per match

matches of data

6 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 43.7%: “Cukaricki to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 29.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.99 for Mladost Lucani, 1.32 for Cukaricki.
The highest double chance value is 73.4% (X2 — draw or Cukaricki win).
These values were computed from 1,095 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Mladost Lucani to win26.6%

Draw29.7%

Cukaricki to win43.7%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 2,518 of 5,655 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

10	Fouls	25

3	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

Mladost Lucani lead at half-time24.0%

Level at half-time45.5%

Cukaricki lead at half-time30.5%

First-half double chance

1X — Mladost Lucani ahead or level69.5%

12 — not level at half-time54.5%

X2 — level or Cukaricki ahead76.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1095 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Mladost Lucani: at least 12Actual: 10
Cukaricki: at least 13Actual: 25

Corners

Mladost Lucani: at least 3Actual: 10
Cukaricki: at least 4Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Mladost Lucani score0.99

Attack: Mladost Lucani score below the league average (37% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Cukaricki's defence is close to the league average (0.92×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.99 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Cukaricki score1.32

Attack: Cukaricki score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Mladost Lucani's defence is close to the league average (1.08×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.32 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.0%0–112.4%0–09.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.