Super Liga · Serbia · Regular Season - 2

FK Crvena Zvezda–Vojvodina

3–1

HT 2–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 26 July 2026 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished

Goals and red cards

15'FK Crvena ZvezdaO. Bukari (assist: Bruno Duarte)
19'FK Crvena ZvezdaV. Kostov
32'VojvodinaN. Mulahusejnovic (assist: L. Randjelovic)
90'FK Crvena ZvezdaD. Saric (assist: A. Katai)

Match statistics

Match statistics
FK Crvena Zvezda		Vojvodina
21	Shots	14
12	Shots on target	3
17	Shots inside the box	8
2	Goalkeeper saves	9
6	Corners	2
3	Offsides	3
57%	Possession	43%
545	Passes	409
483	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: FK Crvena Zvezda 2.38 · Vojvodina 0.75. On the pitch: 3-1.
Shots FK Crvena Zvezda 21 · Vojvodina 14; on target 12 and 3.
FK Crvena Zvezda kept the ball more (57%).

Referee

M. Milanovic→

3.42

yellows per match

0.17

reds per match

matches of data

12 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 74.4%: “FK Crvena Zvezda to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 17.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.38 for FK Crvena Zvezda, 0.75 for Vojvodina.
The highest double chance value is 91.4% (1X — FK Crvena Zvezda win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,082 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

FK Crvena Zvezda to win74.4%

Draw17.0%

Vojvodina to win8.6%

When the model has said 70–75% in the past, 560 of 732 predictions were correct (76.5%). Accuracy record →

9	Fouls	7

2	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 2–1

FK Crvena Zvezda lead at half-time53.4%

Level at half-time36.8%

Vojvodina lead at half-time9.8%

First-half double chance

1X — FK Crvena Zvezda ahead or level90.2%

12 — not level at half-time63.2%

X2 — level or Vojvodina ahead46.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1082 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

FK Crvena Zvezda: at least 11Actual: 9
Vojvodina: at least 13Actual: 7

Corners

FK Crvena Zvezda: at least 5Actual: 6
Vojvodina: at least 3Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals FK Crvena Zvezda score2.38

Attack: FK Crvena Zvezda score 114% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Vojvodina concede 22% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: A strong attack meets a strong defence. The two largely cancel and the expectation drops to 2.38 goals — markedly lower than the attack alone would promise.

How many goals Vojvodina score0.75

Attack: Vojvodina score above the league average (25% more).

Opponent's defence: FK Crvena Zvezda concede 36% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.75 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–012.7%2–110.2%3–010.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Week 2 of the season. This prediction was computed from previous seasons. Summer transfers, budget changes and squad rebuilds aren't in the ratings yet — the model can only see that a team has been rebuilt once new results come in.

We measured this: the bias is only pronounced in the opening week. In this week the model's overall accuracy does not separate from the rest of the season — that is, we found no measurable flaw. The one tendency across all opening weeks is that home wins are called slightly too often (said 43.0%, got 41.9%; n=583).

This sample is small and not statistically established, which is why we do not correct the model for it. The correction we tried (pulling probabilities toward the league average) didn't win on holdout, so it wasn't added. Read opening-week predictions with a little more caution.