Super Liga · Serbia · Regular Season - 1

Radnik Surdulica–Mladost Lucani

1–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 19 July 2026 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadion FK Radnik, Sudulika

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 26%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

54'Mladost LucaniM. Todosijevic (assist: A. Varjacic)
56'Radnik SurdulicaD. Stojanović (assist: D. Stojanovic)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Radnik Surdulica		Mladost Lucani
23	Shots	5
7	Shots on target	3
9	Shots inside the box	2
2	Goalkeeper saves	6
5	Corners	3
1	Offsides	2
68%	Possession	32%
530	Passes	258
466	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Radnik Surdulica 1.66 · Mladost Lucani 0.77. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Radnik Surdulica 23 · Mladost Lucani 5; on target 7 and 3.
Radnik Surdulica kept the ball more (68%).

Referee

D. Nikolic→

4.00

yellows per match

0.30

reds per match

matches of data

10 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 58.6%: “Radnik Surdulica to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 25.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.66 for Radnik Surdulica, 0.77 for Mladost Lucani.
The highest double chance value is 84.1% (1X — Radnik Surdulica win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,076 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Radnik Surdulica to win58.6%

Draw25.6%

Mladost Lucani to win15.9%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,651 of 2,775 predictions were correct (59.5%). Accuracy record →

15	Fouls	11

2	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Radnik Surdulica lead at half-time38.4%

Level at half-time44.1%

Mladost Lucani lead at half-time17.5%

First-half double chance

1X — Radnik Surdulica ahead or level82.5%

12 — not level at half-time55.9%

X2 — level or Mladost Lucani ahead61.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1076 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Radnik Surdulica: at least 14Actual: 15
Mladost Lucani: at least 12Actual: 11

Corners

Radnik Surdulica: at least 5Actual: 5
Mladost Lucani: at least 3Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Radnik Surdulica score1.66

Attack: Radnik Surdulica score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Mladost Lucani concede 16% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.66 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Mladost Lucani score0.77

Attack: Mladost Lucani score below the league average (34% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Radnik Surdulica's defence is close to the league average (0.89×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.77 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–014.0%1–112.9%2–012.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Week 1 of the season. This prediction was computed from previous seasons. Summer transfers, budget changes and squad rebuilds aren't in the ratings yet — the model can only see that a team has been rebuilt once new results come in.

We measured this and we're not hiding it: in the opening week of past seasons the model came in 3.3 points below the accuracy it claimed (n=220) — for the rest of the season it beats its own claim. The tendency points this way, though it is not proof on its own: in the opening week it slightly over-calls home wins (said 42.7%, got 39.5%) and slightly under-calls draws (said 26.1%, got 28.2%).

This sample is small and not statistically established, which is why we do not correct the model for it. The correction we tried (pulling probabilities toward the league average) didn't win on holdout, so it wasn't added. Read opening-week predictions with a little more caution.