1. SNL · Slovenia · Regular Season - 9

Radomlje–Maribor

0–3

HT 0–2

Kick-off: Sunday, 13 September 2026 at 18:15
Status: Match Finished

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Goals and red cards

13'MariborŽan Karničnik (assist: Z. Jevsenak)
34'MariborZ. Jevsenak (assist: Žan Karničnik)
69'MariborZ. Repas (assist: Žan Karničnik)

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Radomlje 1.03 · Maribor 1.97. On the pitch: 0-3.

Referee

R. Obrenovic→

4.38

yellows per match

0.29

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 59.5%: “Maribor to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 22.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.03 for Radomlje, 1.97 for Maribor.
The highest double chance value is 82.4% (X2 — draw or Maribor win).
These values were computed from 743 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Radomlje to win17.6%

Draw22.9%

Maribor to win59.5%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,158 of 1,982 predictions were correct (58.4%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

Double chance

1X — Radomlje win or draw40.5%

12 — any result other than a draw77.1%

X2 — draw or Maribor win82.4%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (22.9%).

First half

Actual: 0–2

Radomlje lead at half-time15.5%

Level at half-time38.2%

Maribor lead at half-time46.2%

First-half double chance

1X — Radomlje ahead or level53.8%

12 — not level at half-time61.8%

X2 — level or Maribor ahead84.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 742 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Radomlje: at least 11
Maribor: at least 11

Corners

Radomlje: at least 4
Maribor: at least 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals58.5%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,528 of 2,652 predictions were correct (57.6%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 52.1%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Radomlje score1.03

Attack: Radomlje score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Maribor concede 28% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.03 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Maribor score1.97

Attack: Maribor score above the league average (17% more).

Opponent's defence: Radomlje concede 29% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.97 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.4%1–211.0%0–29.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.