1. SNL · Slovenia · Regular Season - 8

Nafta–Radomlje

3–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Friday, 4 September 2026 at 18:15
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

50'NaftaA. Marosa (assist: J. Zorica)
53'RadomljeD. Ikenna (assist: J. Martincic)
56'NaftaA. Marosa
77'NaftaJ. Zorica

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Nafta 2.02 · Radomlje 1.35. On the pitch: 3-1.

Referee

B. Bejzak→

4.00

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

1 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 52.9%: “Nafta to win”. Second comes “Radomlje to win” at 24.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.02 for Nafta, 1.35 for Radomlje.
The highest double chance value is 76.8% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 734 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Nafta to win52.9%

Draw23.2%

Radomlje to win24.0%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,913 of 3,689 predictions were correct (51.9%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

First half

Actual: 0–0

Nafta lead at half-time26.5%

Level at half-time38.9%

Radomlje lead at half-time34.5%

First-half double chance

1X — Nafta ahead or level65.5%

12 — not level at half-time61.1%

X2 — level or Radomlje ahead73.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 733 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Nafta: at least 11
Radomlje: at least 11

Corners

Nafta: at least 4
Radomlje: at least 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Nafta score2.02

Attack: Nafta score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Radomlje concede 29% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.02 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Radomlje score1.35

Attack: Radomlje score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Nafta concede 21% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.35 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–110.5%2–110.5%2–27.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.