1. SNL · Slovenia · Regular Season - 7

Radomlje–Olimpija Ljubljana

0–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 29 August 2026 at 15:30
Status: Match Finished

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What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Radomlje 1.14 · Olimpija Ljubljana 1.60. On the pitch: 0-0.

Referee

M. Matosa→

4.81

yellows per match

0.06

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 47.5%: “Olimpija Ljubljana to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 26.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.14 for Radomlje, 1.60 for Olimpija Ljubljana.
The highest double chance value is 74.2% (X2 — draw or Olimpija Ljubljana win).
These values were computed from 729 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Radomlje to win25.8%

Draw26.7%

Olimpija Ljubljana to win47.5%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Radomlje win or draw52.5%

12 — any result other than a draw73.3%

X2 — draw or Olimpija Ljubljana win74.2%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (26.7%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

Radomlje lead at half-time19.9%

Level at half-time42.7%

Olimpija Ljubljana lead at half-time37.3%

First-half double chance

1X — Radomlje ahead or level62.7%

12 — not level at half-time57.3%

X2 — level or Olimpija Ljubljana ahead80.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 728 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Radomlje: at least 12
Olimpija Ljubljana: at least 11

Corners

Radomlje: at least 4
Olimpija Ljubljana: at least 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals52.3%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,761 of 3,286 predictions were correct (53.6%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 52.0%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Radomlje score1.14

Attack: Radomlje score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Olimpija Ljubljana concede 31% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.14 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Olimpija Ljubljana score1.60

Attack: Olimpija Ljubljana score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Radomlje concede 31% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.60 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.5%1–210.4%0–19.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.