1. SNL · Slovenia · Regular Season - 7

Nafta–Maribor

2–3

HT 1–2

Kick-off: Sunday, 30 August 2026 at 18:15
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

7'MariborT. Cipot (assist: I. Tshipamba)
18'MariborŽan Karničnik (assist: I. Tshipamba)
45+2'NaftaL. Poredos (assist: S. Omrani)
52'NaftaA. Marosa (assist: S. Omrani)
77'MariborT. Cipot (assist: N. Osterc)

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Nafta 1.13 · Maribor 1.71. On the pitch: 2-3.

Referee

D. Halilovic→

6.14

yellows per match

0.14

reds per match

matches of data

14 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 50.6%: “Maribor to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 25.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.13 for Nafta, 1.71 for Maribor.
The highest double chance value is 76.3% (X2 — draw or Maribor win).
These values were computed from 732 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Nafta to win23.7%

Draw25.7%

Maribor to win50.6%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,913 of 3,689 predictions were correct (51.9%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

First half

Actual: 1–2

Nafta lead at half-time14.0%

Level at half-time38.3%

Maribor lead at half-time47.7%

First-half double chance

1X — Nafta ahead or level52.3%

12 — not level at half-time61.7%

X2 — level or Maribor ahead86.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 731 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Nafta: at least 11
Maribor: at least 11

Corners

Nafta: at least 4
Maribor: at least 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Nafta score1.13

Attack: Nafta score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Maribor concede 31% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.13 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Maribor score1.71

Attack: Maribor score above the league average (16% more).

Opponent's defence: Nafta's defence is close to the league average (1.14×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.71 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.9%1–210.7%0–19.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.