1. SNL · Slovenia · Regular Season - 6

Maribor–Bravo

3–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 23 August 2026 at 18:15
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Ljudski vrt, Maribor

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Goals and red cards

13'BravoD. Omoregie (assist: S. Nuhanovic)
59'MariborT. Cipot (assist: N. Viher)
65'BravoJ. Arinze · red card
77'MariborL. Stravs (own goal)
81'MariborDario Vizinger

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Maribor 1.64 · Bravo 1.03. On the pitch: 3-1.

Referee

M. Matosa→

4.93

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 51.4%: “Maribor to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 26.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.64 for Maribor, 1.03 for Bravo.
The highest double chance value is 77.8% (1X — Maribor win or draw).
These values were computed from 727 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Maribor to win51.4%

Draw26.4%

Bravo to win22.2%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

Double chance

1X — Maribor win or draw77.8%

12 — any result other than a draw73.6%

X2 — draw or Bravo win48.6%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (26.4%).

First half

Actual: 0–1

Maribor lead at half-time40.1%

Level at half-time40.3%

Bravo lead at half-time19.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Maribor ahead or level80.4%

12 — not level at half-time59.7%

X2 — level or Bravo ahead59.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 726 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Maribor: at least 11
Bravo: at least 11

Corners

Maribor: at least 4
Bravo: at least 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Maribor score1.64

Attack: Maribor score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Bravo's defence is close to the league average (0.88×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.64 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Bravo score1.03

Attack: Bravo score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Maribor concede 33% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.03 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.4%1–010.6%2–110.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.