1. SNL · Slovenia · Regular Season - 6

Mura–Koper

0–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 22 August 2026 at 15:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Mestni stadion Fazanerija, Murska Sobota

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Goals and red cards

90'KoperR. Beric (assist: A. Roncal)

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Mura 1.03 · Koper 1.85. On the pitch: 0-1.

Referee

R. Obrenovic→

4.32

yellows per match

0.23

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 56.7%: “Koper to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 24.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.03 for Mura, 1.85 for Koper.
The highest double chance value is 80.8% (X2 — draw or Koper win).
These values were computed from 726 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Mura to win19.2%

Draw24.2%

Koper to win56.7%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,158 of 1,982 predictions were correct (58.4%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

Double chance

1X — Mura win or draw43.3%

12 — any result other than a draw75.8%

X2 — draw or Koper win80.8%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (24.2%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

Mura lead at half-time15.5%

Level at half-time38.0%

Koper lead at half-time46.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Mura ahead or level53.6%

12 — not level at half-time62.0%

X2 — level or Koper ahead84.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 725 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Mura: at least 10
Koper: at least 12

Corners

Mura: at least 4
Koper: at least 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals55.6%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,528 of 2,652 predictions were correct (57.6%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 52.1%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Mura score1.03

Attack: Mura score below the league average (18% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Koper concede 22% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.03 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Koper score1.85

Attack: Koper score above the league average (25% more).

Opponent's defence: Mura's defence is close to the league average (1.11×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.85 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.1%1–210.9%0–29.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.