1. SNL · Slovenia · Regular Season - 6

Olimpija Ljubljana–Nafta

1–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Friday, 21 August 2026 at 18:15
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

79'Olimpija LjubljanaA. Marin (assist: M. Çuni)

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Olimpija Ljubljana 1.70 · Nafta 1.09. On the pitch: 1-0.

Referee

M. Antic→

6.91

yellows per match

0.73

reds per match

matches of data

11 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 51.2%: “Olimpija Ljubljana to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 25.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.70 for Olimpija Ljubljana, 1.09 for Nafta.
The highest double chance value is 77.0% (1X — Olimpija Ljubljana win or draw).
These values were computed from 725 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Olimpija Ljubljana to win51.2%

Draw25.8%

Nafta to win23.0%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,913 of 3,689 predictions were correct (51.9%). Accuracy record →

First half

Actual: 0–0

Olimpija Ljubljana lead at half-time42.4%

Level at half-time41.1%

Nafta lead at half-time16.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Olimpija Ljubljana ahead or level83.4%

12 — not level at half-time58.9%

X2 — level or Nafta ahead57.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 724 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Olimpija Ljubljana: at least 11
Nafta: at least 11

Corners

Olimpija Ljubljana: at least 5
Nafta: at least 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Olimpija Ljubljana score1.70

Attack: Olimpija Ljubljana score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Nafta's defence is close to the league average (1.13×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.70 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Nafta score1.09

Attack: Nafta score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Olimpija Ljubljana concede 29% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.09 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.0%2–110.7%1–09.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.